Prioritization of Optimized Scenarios in the Food Chain

Purpose: This study aims to identify the optimal scenario within the realm of sustainable food supply chains, utilizing a set of meticulously designed indicators and scenarios. The research also aims to analyze the nature, direction, and extent of influence among these indicators to develop a comprehensive solution that minimizes the environmental footprint of food production. Furthermore, the study seeks to promote self-sufficiency in domestic food production, enhance income generation, and alleviate the financial burdens associated with both food production and imports. By addressing these multifaceted goals, the research contributes to the strategic planning efforts of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad and bolsters national food security initiatives.
Design/methodology/approach: The proposed framework is organized into three distinct phases. In the first phase, relevant indicators and scenarios concerning sustainable food supply chains are identified through a systematic review of existing literature and prior studies in the field. This phase also includes data collection from authoritative sources such as the Statistical Center of Iran and the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad, ensuring the reliability and relevance of the input data. The second phase involves the design and mathematical modeling of the system, which incorporates six objective functions representing sustainability indices, along with a set of equations and constraints. The model is solved using the goal programming method, where specific goals and targets are assigned to each index to guide the optimization process. In the third phase, the scenarios developed in the first phase are prioritized using the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. This prioritization assumes equal weights for all indicators to ensure an unbiased evaluation. Additionally, a structured questionnaire was designed and distributed among domain experts to assess the degree and manner of influence among the indicators. The collected data were analyzed using the DEMATEL-Fuzzy method, which enabled the identification of causal relationships and the strength of interdependencies among the indicators. The final step of this phase involved a comprehensive analysis of the results obtained from both the prioritization and influence assessment.
Findings: The study effectively prioritized the proposed scenarios based on six sustainability indicators and revealed significant interrelationships among them. Scenario 4 emerged as the most advantageous option, demonstrating notable improvements in both economic and environmental dimensions. Specifically, this scenario resulted in increased self-sufficiency in the production of plant-based foods while simultaneously reducing water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. These outcomes indicate that strategic and optimal allocation of resources in food cultivation can yield substantial environmental benefits and enhance national self-reliance. Among the indicators, greenhouse gas emissions and self-sufficiency in plant-based food production were identified as the most influential and causal factors, with the latter having the greatest impact on other indicators.
Research limitations/implications: Despite its contributions, the study acknowledges certain limitations. A key limitation is the exclusion of secondary food products such as cheese and yogurt, which restricts the model's applicability to a broader range of food items. Additionally, the diversity and complexity of food products in the market present challenges for generalizing the findings across all categories. 
Practical implications: The results of this research offer valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the agricultural sector. They can be utilized to tackle existing challenges in the food supply chain, including insufficient domestic production, rising food prices, and inefficiencies in resource allocation. However, the model’s limitations should be considered when applying its recommendations to various food categories. 
Social implications: The study highlights the significance of social dimensions in sustainable food systems by incorporating indicators related to self-sufficiency in both plant-based and animal-based food production. These indicators reflect the broader societal goal of ensuring equitable access to nutritious food for all segments of the population. 
Originality/value: This research presents a novel approach by designing four distinct scenarios, six sustainability indicators, and evaluating seventeen types of food products of plant and animal origin. The scenarios are tailored to address specific weaknesses in Iran’s sustainable food supply chain. Each scenario involves optimal resource allocation based on environmental factors (e.g., water usage, greenhouse gas emissions), economic factors (e.g., import/export prices), and social factors (e.g., self-sufficiency). The findings provide actionable guidance for the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad to enhance food production strategies and rectify existing imbalances in the national food system.