1
Yazd University, Department of Industrial Engineering
2
Department of Industrial Engineering, Yazd, Iran
10.22108/pom.2026.149494.1671
Abstract
The design of submarine pressure hulls has always been accompanied by conflicting objectives of weight reduction, safety enhancement, cost reduction, and operational effectiveness preservation. The main research question is how to achieve an optimal design that systematically balances these competing objectives through the integration of multi-criteria decision-making and reliability analysis methods. In this study, a novel probabilistic multi-criteria decision-making framework was proposed. Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) was integrated with nonlinear finite element analysis and a genetic algorithm. A Kriging surrogate model with a coefficient of determination exceeding 0.98 was utilized for efficient Monte Carlo simulation and quantification of failure probability under uncertainties in material properties (yield strength coefficient of variation of 2.7%) and structural geometric imperfections. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), employing the judgments of ten experts in naval architecture, was applied to evaluate the Overall Measure of Effectiveness (OMOE) and identify the optimal balanced design. The findings indicated that the proposed framework achieved a 23.4% weight reduction under probabilistic constraints with a minimum reliability index of 3.5. The optimal balanced design achieved an OMOE score of 0.85. Global sensitivity analysis revealed that yield strength, with a 70% contribution, is the dominant factor in determining structural reliability, while stiffener spacing has a greater impact on weight reduction compared to shell thickness. The Pareto frontier, comprising distinct design philosophies, provides a practical decision-support tool for engineers. By demonstrating the effective integration of multi-criteria decision-making and reliability-based optimization, this research offers a rigorous, risk-based tool for designers of weight-sensitive marine structures.
sheikh hafshejani, J. , Fallah Nezhad, M. S. , Fakhrzad, M. B. and Hosseini Nasab, H. (2026). A Reliability-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Framework for Submarine Pressure Hull Design. Research in Production and Operations Management, (), -. doi: 10.22108/pom.2026.149494.1671
MLA
sheikh hafshejani, J. , , Fallah Nezhad, M. S. , , Fakhrzad, M. B. , and Hosseini Nasab, H. . "A Reliability-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Framework for Submarine Pressure Hull Design", Research in Production and Operations Management, , , 2026, -. doi: 10.22108/pom.2026.149494.1671
HARVARD
sheikh hafshejani, J., Fallah Nezhad, M. S., Fakhrzad, M. B., Hosseini Nasab, H. (2026). 'A Reliability-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Framework for Submarine Pressure Hull Design', Research in Production and Operations Management, (), pp. -. doi: 10.22108/pom.2026.149494.1671
CHICAGO
J. sheikh hafshejani , M. S. Fallah Nezhad , M. B. Fakhrzad and H. Hosseini Nasab, "A Reliability-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Framework for Submarine Pressure Hull Design," Research in Production and Operations Management, (2026): -, doi: 10.22108/pom.2026.149494.1671
VANCOUVER
sheikh hafshejani, J., Fallah Nezhad, M. S., Fakhrzad, M. B., Hosseini Nasab, H. A Reliability-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Framework for Submarine Pressure Hull Design. Research in Production and Operations Management, 2026; (): -. doi: 10.22108/pom.2026.149494.1671
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